<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Retail Reasoning: Quarterly Retail Outlook]]></title><description><![CDATA[Quarterly Retail Outlook Reports: Forward-looking, data-driven macro reports issued every quarter to help you map out inventory, marketing, and expansion strategies.]]></description><link>https://www.retailreasoning.com/s/quarterly-retail-outlook</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!03Mk!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F255d0a66-5403-4a95-acbd-b8287b251c22_1254x1254.png</url><title>Retail Reasoning: Quarterly Retail Outlook</title><link>https://www.retailreasoning.com/s/quarterly-retail-outlook</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 17:02:05 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.retailreasoning.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[David Happe]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[retailreasoning@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[retailreasoning@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[David Happe]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[David Happe]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[retailreasoning@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[retailreasoning@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[David Happe]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Quarterly Retail Outlook Edition 2 · Forecasting Q4 2026 · October to December 2026 ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Published August 2026]]></description><link>https://www.retailreasoning.com/p/quarterly-retail-outlook-edition-368</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.retailreasoning.com/p/quarterly-retail-outlook-edition-368</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Happe]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:07:41 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp" width="1254" height="1254" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1254,&quot;width&quot;:1254,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:33924,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://retailreasoning.substack.com/i/210882731?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LxxR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd969ec7a-6c96-4fd4-af1a-8686aa16a127_1254x1254.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon-noB79L"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2 icon-noB79L"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Fourth quarter revenue is going to look considerably better than fourth quarter units, and a large share of the gap is arithmetic nobody put in the plan.</p><p>Start with the base. There is no October 2025 &#8230;</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.retailreasoning.com/p/quarterly-retail-outlook-edition-368">
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Quarterly Retail Outlook Edition 1 · Forecasting Q3 2026 · July to September 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[Published August 2026]]></description><link>https://www.retailreasoning.com/p/quarterly-retail-outlook-edition</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.retailreasoning.com/p/quarterly-retail-outlook-edition</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Happe]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 01:11:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png" width="1254" height="1254" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1254,&quot;width&quot;:1254,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1401952,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://retailreasoning.substack.com/i/210837219?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4w9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e567a32-f7c6-4281-b17a-68ad6e467087_1254x1254.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon-noB79L"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2 icon-noB79L"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Data cutoff for this entire edition: August 11, 2026. Every figure in the data spread, the trade and tariff ledger and the Distortion Register reports as of that date.</p><p>A launch note on timing. This ed&#8230;</p>
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          <a href="https://www.retailreasoning.com/p/quarterly-retail-outlook-edition">
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   ]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>